Big Fails

The economist has a list of ways to birth a megaflop, by which they appear to mean a strategically important investment that loses a company money, face and time. The basics:

  1. Don’t break something that works (“slaughter a sacred cow”)
  2. Don’t do something you’re not good at just because you can. (“mix oil and water”)
  3. Don’t produce a genuinely awful product.

I’m fascinated by organizational dysfunction. Not only from train wreck voyeurism, mind you, but because the only way to learn is through failure and I’d rather learn through others’ failure if I can. (btw, the only book I’ve seen in this vein, and it isn’t that great, is this one.)

Anyway, the most interesting kinds of failure happen when companies that get a lot right screw up. In that light, that list above isn’t too bad. But I’d add one:

4. Forgetting what the product is.

The Economist opens their article with a discussion about the recent film flop John Carter, which I wanted to see but skipped after checking reviews. I think Hollywood blockbusters are a better example of my point than any of theirs.

The problem is that ‘Hollywood’ is actually not in the content creation business, believe it or not. They’re in the distribution business, a business run by advertisers, marketers and salespeople. There are two really important challenges to overcome in sales driven businesses:

First, to quote Gordon Moore: “Every the salesmen thinks he’s management material”.

Second, salesfolk are quick to criticize products that they think might be a difficult sell.

Sales is tough. And when it doesn’t work it’s not always obvious where something went wrong.

Salespeople have two extremely powerful advantages that quickly turn into a disadvantage in tough times: they have outstanding communication skills (which they use to trick themselves and everyone else into thinking they know more than they do, see Gordon Moore above) and they’re the ones who are experts in sales. Shouldn’t they know what’s best?

Hollywood flops all the time. I think this happens when the sales department makes too many decisions on what they want to sell: the package becomes the product.

It’s easy to say “don’t give marketing too much control!” but remember that marketing is often a bigger part of the blockbuster budget than the film itself. They control the money!

I didn’t quite know where to link to it, but this is an awesome post on sales.

Technology Doesn’t Die

I’ve been slowly reading What Technology Wants by Kevin Kelly after listening to the Econtalk interview some time ago. There’s all kinds of neat insight in it, one of which is this idea that technology does not die:

“I say there is no species of technology that have ever gone globally extinct on this planet.”

…That means, he said, “I can’t find any [invention, tool, technology] that has disappeared completely from Earth.”

Can’t be, I told him. Tools do hang around, but some must go extinct.

If only because of the hubris — the absolute nature of the claim — I told him it would take me a half hour to find a tool, an invention that is no longer being made anywhere by anybody.

Go ahead, he said. Try.

If you listen to our Morning Edition debate, I tried carbon paper (still being made), steam powered car engine parts (still being made), Paleolithic hammers (still being made), 6 pages of agricultural tools from an 1895 Montgomery Ward & Co. Catalogue (every one of them still being made), and to my utter astonishment, I couldn’t find a provable example of an technology that has disappeared completely.

Well today I read about IBM’s old operating system, which I vaguely remember, called O/S 2. Dead, right?

Try though it might, IBM couldn’t force an unwilling world to use OS/2 as its primary operating system. But it also couldn’t extinguish demand for the operating system simply by declaring that it wasn’t going to sell and support it anymore, an announcement it made in 2005…

In New York City’s subway system, for instance, the travelers who gain entrance by swiping their Metrocard fare cards over five million times each weekday do so with the assistance of IBM’s theoretically defunct software. “While OS/2 is not running any visible part of the system, it does serve an essential purpose and there are hundreds of OS/2 computers in service,”…

…A company called Serenity Systems International sells an operating system called eComStation that’s a licensed, updated version of OS/2, giving users the option of buying a piece of software that’s still extant and still supported.

Waldhauer says that the checkout systems at Safeway supermarkets still run OS/2. So do certain Automated Teller Machines still in service, although big banks have largely moved on to Windows.

And perhaps more in keeping with the spirit of Kelly’s prediction:

And so do some holdouts who stick with OS/2 simply because they like it. For years, an organization called Warpstock has held OS/2 conferences in the U.S. and Europe.

How They Started

Fun little discussion on how people got into programming.

I started by writing simple VBA macros to automate Excel at work. A buddy that sat nearby studied engineering in school and showed me some of the basics. From then on it was hitting the ‘record’ button and googling what popped up!

My programming has always been focused on data management and analysis. I learned SQL in the Stanford DB course and Matlab/Octave in the Stanford ML class. I took up Python to build a simple weather webapp which I’ve never finished then bolted on scipy and numpy after reading some Kaggle winners’ submissions. Now I use Python all the time. The webapp project also introduced me to django (which I rejected – too painful to learn), some ftp syncing automation, sqlite, and a bunch of rudimentary php and javascript/jquery.

I’m messing around with C, now, but I can’t see a great reason for ditching Python yet. I still don’t really know what an Object is (wtf is __init__?) though I’d love to learn about it eventually.