Writing and Hero Worship

Posted on by David Wright

There was a period starting from when I graduated from university that I felt intellectually bored. There’s something about learning the basics of a job that is deeply humbling – you kinda feel like you’re in elementary school.

So I got into blogs and podcasts. I’ve learned at least as much from these folks as I did from all my U profs and have tossed the writers/speakers onto pedestals, as one does with those one admires. I have once or twice imagined myself meeting these people and I’m intimidated by the very thought!

So I read this by one of the most impressive denizens of my blogroll: Tyler Cowen. And I’m amazed by his adoration of Bill Simmons. What!? Bill Simmons? The funny guy that writes about bullshit (ie sports) every day? I’m sure I read somewhere that sportswriting is the vocation that least contributes to society. I’d go so far as to suggest that Bill would even agree). And I love sports!

I don’t even know what my point is here. Maybe that wisdom comes from weird places. BS’s (his initials!) favourite author is David Halberstam, who also resides in Arnold Kling’s pantheon. Maybe it’s that great writers transcend their subject, yet Roissy toils in crossover obscurity (mostly).

Is it weird that I find it comforting that the people I admire admire the people I admire? Is it weird that all this reinforcing admiration makes me feel even less admirable myself?

Ha!

Email Exchange with Steve Jobs

Posted on by David Wright

If this is legit, I’m quite surprised that Steve Jobs is willing to exchange emails with randoms at 2am.

I find the “controversies” over the ipad baffling, especially the flash fiasco.  Apple’s making a call, just like it did with the floppy drive. If you want a floppy drive, buy a different computer.

The problem isn’t that Apple is making a product that you don’t like, it’s that they’re making a product that you like so much, you’re going to buy it no matter what.

Isn’t that a good thing?

I still don’t know what to make of all this

Posted on by David Wright

Felix comments on El-Erian’s summary of the PIMCO global economic outlook.

Whenever I feel overwhelmed by the big picture, I retreat to my analytical roots in the insurance world.

Inflation can be dealt with fairly easily because prudent insurers will have sufficiently implemented ALM and so maturities should match payouts and so inflation will only hurt on the liability side of very long (insurance) tail lines of business. No systemic threat there.

Sovereign defaults will be tricky for insurers in those countries likely to default, but those insurers don’t matter because those economies don’t matter in a global sense.

I’d be surprised if knock-on effects of bank insolvencies for those heavily exposed to defaulting countries moved anyone’s needle.

Stagnant growth? Meh. It matters for this thing called “economic growth” but that’s mostly about opportunity cost. If my living standard doesn’t keep skyrocketing (in the historical sense), I will hardly notice. Real growth in the stock of insurable assets will slow, but insurers make their money from their leveraged bond portfolios, anyway.

Rise of the BRICs? Meh. My view is that those countries aren’t stable enough legally and don’t yet have a big and valuable enough stock of assets to protect to support globally important insurance industries.

State capitalism and bailouts? Now we’re getting somewhere. My view is that Uncle Sam prevented/delayed an insurance calamity over the last couple years. Bailouts kept the skeletons in the closet, which people would undoubtedly have wanted to claim for (thinking mostly professional liability here). A more severe recession would have triggered a load more property “oops” claims than we saw, though we did see an uptick.

More bailouts could prolong the soft market.