Will China 2050 be European?

We see massive urbanization driving Chinese development.

Out of the country and into urban service industries. Sounds familiar. So let’s extrapolate.

This paper suggests China’s 2050 population will be roughly the same as it is today.

According to this, overall GDP will increase by between 2 and 2.5x by 2020. By 2050, we’re talking about a 20x increase. China has about 1.4bn people, which will roughly be the same as it was, so the GDP/person will go from something like 1.4b/3t = 4,500 to low teens in 2020 and 90k by 2050?

That means that in 2020 China will be something like Brazil and by 2050 a 1st world country? Sounds like a big jump.

Anyway, I’m thinking more of the rural vs urban divide in China. It’s a densely populated place, even in the rural areas and Ryan Avent taught me that rural and urban differences are deep and deeply political. Urban peoples’ political outlook is hugely shaped by the fact that they live on top of one another and favor more interventionist political systems to deal with all the conflicting interests that result.

The upshot here is that China will have a combination of population density, economic heft and sheer size more similar to today’s Europe than anything else. Will its politics follow suit?

Human Capital Links

Here are some loosely related links:

Ben Horowitz on Andreessen Horowitz’s strategy. The motivating force was his reaction to this:

< That excitement took a sharp downhill turn when one of the top partners said to me, in front of my co-founders, “When are you going to get a real CEO?”

I was completely stunned—the comment knocked the wind out of me. Our largest investor had basically called me a fake CEO in front of my team. I said, “What do you mean?”—hoping he would revise his statement and enable me to save face. Instead he pressed on: “Someone who has designed a large organization, someone who knows great senior executives and brings prebuilt customer relationships, someone who knows what they are doing.”

I could hardly breathe. It was bad enough that he undermined my standing as CEO, but to make matters worse, I knew that at some level he was right. I didn’t have those skills.

But Ben still feels that founding CEOs are still better equipped to run their companies than hired guns. So, as any good founder does, he set out to build a company that squares this circle:

As we set out to design a venture capital firm that would enable founders to run their own companies, we began by asking: In what ways are professional CEOs superior to founder CEOs?

Next, we asked: How might a venture capital firm help close those gaps?

Alex Tabarrok gives us this graph, which I’ll let speak for itself for the moment:

Finally, a discussion of consultants. Tyler Cowen gives an interesting take on the ‘why smart kids go into generalist fields’ discussion:

The age structure of achievement is being ratcheted upward, due to specialization and the growth of knowledge. Mathematicians used to prove theorems at age 20, now it happens at age 30, because there is so much to learn along the way. If you are a smart 22-year-old, just out of Harvard, you probably cannot walk into a widget factory and quickly design a better machine. (Note that in “immature” economic sectors, such as social networks circa 2006, young people can and do make immediate significant contributions and indeed they dominated the sector.) Yet you and your parents expect you to earn a high income — now — and to affiliate with other smart, highly educated people, maybe even marry one of them. It won’t work to move to Dayton and spend four years studying widget machines.

You will seek out jobs which reward a high “G factor,” or high general intelligence. That means finance, law, and consulting. You are productive fairly quickly, you make good contacts with other smart people, and you can demonstrate that you are smart, for future employment prospects.

The rest of the world is increasingly specialized, so the returns to your general intelligence, as a complementary factor, are growing too, in spite of your lack of widget knowledge. “Hey you, think about what you are doing! Are you sure? How about this?” often sounds bogus to outsiders but every now and then it pays off and generates a high expected marginal product.

Robin Hanson opens with this:

The puzzle is why firms pay huge sums to big name consulting firms, when their advice comes from kids fresh out of college, who spend only a few months studying an industry they previous knew nothing about. How could such quick-made advice from ignorant recent grads be worth millions? Why don’t firms just ask their own internal recent college grads?

Great questions, and he has some really interesting ideas:

My guess is that most intellectuals underestimate just how dysfunctional most firms are. Firms often have big obvious misallocations of resources, where lots of folks in the firm know about the problems and workable solutions. The main issue is that many highest status folks in the firm resist such changes, as they correctly see that their status will be lowered if they embrace such solutions.

The CEO often understands what needs to be done, but does not have the resources to fight this blocking coalition. But if a prestigious outside consulting firm weighs in, that can turn the status tide. Coalitions can often successfully block a CEO initiative, and yet not resist the further support of a prestigious outside consultant.

To serve this function, management consulting firms need to have the strongest prestige money can buy. They also need to be able to quickly walk around a firm, hear the different arguments, and judge where the weight of reason lies. And they need to be relatively immune to accusations of bias – that their advice follows from interests, affiliations, or commitments.

I like this and it fits with the idea that most consulting isn’t really about giving new or interesting answers to problems. Rather it’s about fleshing out conclusions consistent with the instincts of highly experienced executives. You tend to tell them what they want to hear.

Ok, so here’s why I put all these in one post: I think of the most productive people in society being those with extremely narrow and deep skill sets. That’s where the human capital is. Yet think of many of the highest status folks in our society: the CEOs Ben Horowitz speaks of, the writers, politicians, actors and other professional communicators. They ‘produce’ only relational and cultural consumables and the odd tingly leg.

Nothing earth shattering about all that, I suppose, but many probably scoffed when Tyler Cowen said one solution to The Great Stagnation is to simply raise the status of scientists. Sounds like a good idea to me, if a bit of a long shot.

They Are Among Us

And they don’t need to sleep.

Not only are their circadian rhythms different from most people, so are their moods (very upbeat) and their metabolism (they’re thinner than average, even though sleep deprivation usually raises the risk of obesity). They also seem to have a high tolerance for physical pain and psychological setbacks.

“They encounter obstacles, they just pick themselves up and try again,” Dr. Jones says.

“Typically, at the end of a long, structured phone interview, they will admit that they’ve been texting and surfing the Internet and doing the crossword puzzle at the same time, all on less than six hours of sleep,” says Dr. Jones. “There is some sort of psychological and physiological energy to them that we don’t understand.”

Beware. N = 20:

To date, Dr. Jones says he has identified only about 20 true short sleepers …

There is currently no way people can teach themselves to be short sleepers.

Peddling Trifles

Here’s Suster and Wilson on “Mobile First”.

Wilson’s post is the original, but Mark Suster does a better job on the discussion. Here’s what makes Mobile (capital ‘M’) so interesting to a tech VC:

Mobile has many attributes that are critical:

  • The devices are individual, not shared
  • They are location aware, which is important in personalizing the service offering
  • They are more likely to be the “bottom end of the sales funnel” or in other words close to “point of purchase.” If I am looking at movies on my mobile phone there is a higher chance I’m out-and-about and ready to buy tickets. I have talked with people in the industry who tell me that mobile movie sites convert ticket sales much higher than desktop websites.
  • They are limited in size. In some senses this might seem like a disadvantage. BUT … I’ve talked to a number of eCommerce sites that also report much higher conversion rates than standard web. The hypothesis is that the limited real estate forces less choice and therefore less distraction. This increases conversions of items shown to you.
  • They are often one click away from buying. It’s not pleasant handing over 30% margin to Apple when you sell stuff through the App Store. But on the other hand if you have a product with a very high gross margin (software, virtual goods, etc.) then this is often more than made up by higher conversion rates versus asking somebody for a credit card.
  • They occupy a lot of people’s leisure time. Therefore if your app is geared toward leisure activities (games, communications with friends, etc.) then mobile is awesome.

There’s a trend there and it captures quite a lot of the exciting, consumer-driven advances today: make it easier to consume products while consuming leisure. Mobile works best when exploiting people’s incredibly high discount rates. If you can be there at exactly the moment impulse strikes you’ve got a sale.

Eventually, mobile will mean the everlasting checkout snack line.

But that means mobile only works for trivial products and momentary experiences. Nobody is going to make any kind of big purchase on a whim like that.

And as a result, aside from map tools, I find the whole thing really uninteresting.

It’s About Saving Political Keister, Not Astronaut Lives

This story has been making the rounds:

Starting with near zero space capability in 1961, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) put men on our companion world in eight years. Yet despite vastly superior technology and hundreds of billions of dollars in subsequent spending, the agency has been unable to send anyone else farther than low Earth orbit ever since.

Why? Because we insist that our astronauts be as safe as possible.

Keeping astronauts safe merits significant expenditure. But how much? There is a potentially unlimited set of testing procedures, precursor missions, technological improvements, and other protective measures that could be implemented before allowing human beings to once again try flying to other worlds. Were we to adopt all of them, we would wind up with a human spaceflight program of infinite cost and zero accomplishment. In recent years, the trend has moved in precisely that direction, with NASA’s manned spaceflight effort spending more and more to accomplish less and less.

That’s about the gist of it, though the article goes on and on (I skipped most of it) about how much money programs spend on safety while not getting much scientific bang for the buck.

The author is looking at this from a rather more utilitarian ethic than politicians use when setting budgets and objectives for NASA. Here’s how they decide what to focus on.

They just look at this picture:

Then ask themselves, “another one of those on my watch?”

“Nuh-uh”

Engineers and geeks all over the world cry foul and plead, with articles like the one above, for sanity to return, for society to take a bit of risk for a bit of reward.

“Sorry, what was that about reward?” our intrepid politico glances up from his latest pork-ridden bill. Ok, here’s our chance for the big pitch. Take it away, poindexter…

[a bunch of complicated talk about long-dated options on future prosperity]

“Meh, get in line”

Some Links

First, some whining about Siri. I take pleasure in being a Siri contrarian for some reason.

Next Scott Sumner links us to a paper on the old school banking systems of the late 19th century. Also here.

Never forget that the downside of switching to a banking system in which moral hazard isn’t insured by the government (a noble aim, surely) is one which costs a LOT more for customers. Say goodbye to free checking, for example.

It’s not just reckless ibank risk managers who have gotten something for nothing. You have, too.

Stats Status: Too High

Their star course, called “Modern Applied Statistics: Learning,” started a decade ago with 30 students. Its current enrollment just closed off at 190. “We try to give them long and difficult homework assignments,” Mr. Hastie says. “Nothing works.”

More here.

Now read that last sentence again and ask yourself this question: “is this how we get people into STEM?” I think not.

Two more quotes:

The two men also teach a two-day course for businesspeople called “Statistical Learning and Data Mining” that costs $1,450 and attracts a broad range of data-laden people. “We had two guys from Hong Kong who taught a course in horse race prediction,” Mr. Tibshirani says. “One of them came back and told us they’re making $10 million a year by modeling the last-minute betting.”

Are the only people who ever get to learn something like statistics from a teacher that is designing the course for educational impact (as opposed to status-affirmation) those that spend an enormous amount of money or those that spend nothing at all? How weird is that?

About half of the Stanford stat professors have joint appointments with other departments, including economics, human biology and environmental science. “Statistics is unusual,” Mr. Hastie notes. “It’s a service field to other disciplines. It doesn’t rely on its own work. It needs others.”

This last quote is interesting. Statistical techniques are tools and are not particularly useful without domain knowledge. But they still need to be taught by a specialist, probably.

But these guys/gals get down and muck it up with real data every day and for that they need to join forces with others. It’s an applied discipline.

via Jim Lynch

Where Chickens Roost

Home:

Households, in other words, typically clean up banking messes.

That’s Michael Pettis with another great post. Some more great bits (all on China):

For years China bulls have been arguing that because the Chinese save so extraordinarily much money, there is plenty of room to stimulate consumption – just get them to save a little less.  The problem with this reasoning is that consumption is not low because Chinese households save a lot (they save in line with other Asian countries as a share of their income, and less than some).  It is low because household income is such a low share of GDP.

The only way to boost household consumption is either to redistribute income from the low-consuming rich to the high consuming poor, or, better yet, to redistribute wealth from the state to households. 

Earlier he pointed out a paper that discusses the waste inherent in infrastructure projects.

In the paper Flyvbjerg looks at infrastructure projects in a number of countries (not in China, though, because he needed decent data) and shows how the benefits of these projects are systematically overstated and the costs systematically understated. More important, he shows how these terrible results are simply the expected outcomes of the way infrastructure projects are typically designed and implemented.

It is not a very happy paper in general, but I am pretty sure that many people who read it probably had a thought similar to mine: if infrastructure spending can be so seriously mismanaged in relatively transparent systems with greater political accountability, what might happen in a country with a huge infrastructure boom stretching over decades, much less transparency, and very little political accountability? Isn’t the potential for waste vast?

This is one of those depressing pieces that makes you wonder how on earth anything can go right in the world. I’m reminded of a stat I once heard somewhere that something like 60% of all investment is completely wasted. On the one hand, you might think: “wow, that’s a lot of waste, how do we make any progress”. On the other hand, you can look around and realize the power of that 40%.

On the third hand, pause a moment and appreciate the magnitude of the mismanagement that goes into a REAL crisis. Waste is the norm in an economy (an ironic label if there ever was one, I suppose) so sufficient waste to blow away a substantial portion of NGDP in a year or two is staggering. And probably has a multitude of contributing factors.

Amazon Studios: Would You Pay to Watch?

That’s always the key question. Here’s Amazon’s mission:

We think this will be an effective way to develop commercially viable feature films. There are four things we think can make the Amazon Studios process valuable:

The power of the people. Amazon Studios will give artists and film fans around the world the chance to create and evaluate potential movies. We believe that feedback from a large number of people will be a helpful indicator of what is working and what is not.

Evaluate test movies, not scripts. With today’s inexpensive production and editing tools, it’s easier than ever to produce a visual expression of a script. People might find it easier to evaluate a story’s prospects as a movie by seeing it in movie form (even primitive movie form) rather than reading the script and imagining the movie.

Experiment. Complex problems often require a lot of experimentation to solve. Amazon Studios is designed to be a flexible environment where experiments are encouraged.

Collaborate. When a motivated group works together, openly experimenting and responding to feedback, it can make the most of everyone’s talent.

All well and good, but would you pay for this? If not, then how does it make sense? Consider this:

One interesting thing that I’ve always found about the film business from an economic point of view is that unlike in any other business I can think of, the cost of manufacturing the product has no affect on the purchase cost to the consumer. For example Honda can make a cheaper car with less features and cheaper finishes than BMW without losing all of their customers to the superior car because they sell their product for less. You spend less to make something, you charge less for it. Makes complete and obvious sense.

Not so in the film business. I am an independent film producer and I make films that typically cost somewhere between $5M and $10M. But when I make, say, an $8M film it has to compete at the same price level as the studios’ $80M or $100M film. It costs the consumer the same $12 at the multiplex (and whatever it costs to rent a DVD from Blockbuster these days) for either film. There is no price advantage to the consumer for choosing to see a less expensive film. This naturally makes it terribly difficult for smaller films to find an audience.

One possibility here is that the biggest value-add in the filmmaking process isn’t actually the film, it’s the promotional campaign. Most independent filmmakers desperately want to get picked up by the studios for one simple reason: distribution. As soon as the studios have you they buy ads.

Advertising creates demand. Unless Amazon has a way of kickstarting positive awareness feedback loops, the quality of the films on their site is irrelevant.

This kind of thing shines a slightly different light onto the whole SOPA thing. It has nothing to do with defending IP but everything to do with defending a distribution model that people say is dying, but maybe actually isn’t.