It Is What It Is… Until It’s Now

Krugman won the Nobel Prize for, in part, describing how industries cluster in some areas, something called Economic Geography.

Now, what’s interesting to me about this is that, as he discusses in his Nobel Lecture, he was able to describe this only as its effects were ending! Today, the speculation goes, the power of industry concentration to enhance returns is waning.

There’s a long history of people describing trends only as they are ending.

The Malthusian theory of the economy probably did a good job of describing how things worked right up until the thing was published, following which the Industrial Revolution changed everything.

That’s how I like to think of Cowen’s TGS. He describes a world of declining innovation growth rates, but perhaps just as they are about to really pick up?

And remember, real technological innovation takes years and years from eureka to IPO. I stand by my view of the medium term.