I tend to numbly flick through any Euro analysis that chances across my screen, but yesterday I stopped and actually read a James Hamilton post and thought about it for a sec. It’s a good discussion.
The paths are simple: break the Euro or everyone climb into bed with each other and start making out (my metaphor for fiscal integration). Well, I think this isn’t going to work.
Think of this as a voter: would you vote for a head of state that raises taxes to give BILLIONS of dollars to Greece?
Now think of the flipside. Will Greek voters be all happy-clappy that a bunch of Germans are going to tell them how to run the show? Meh, the Germans aren’t so bad, right? Well, Germany ain’t above rigging itself a good deal at others’ expense.
Let me mess with your xenophobia a bit and ask this: would you accept a bailout from China or Russia if they would assert some fiscal control over your government for the next 20 years?
Yeah f#$!ing right.
The conventional view right now is that nothing is going to happen until the Germans wake up and realize shit is being fed through the fan. Tyler pushes back and so do I, but harder.
This sucker is going down.