“Intelligence” = Negativity

One quick aside.  Last year, the more bearish you were on Under Armour, the better a team scored.  But guess what?  Under Armor rose 15% in the last 7+ months — the team that finished last had the result that was the best, and the winner did the worst.  I know many of my readers don’t like Jim Cramer, but one thing that he said shines through here: “The bear case always sounds more intelligent.”  The same is true in the biases of judges for academic competitions.

That’s David Merkel. I remember a professor at university who said that an MBA gives you a thousand reasons to say “no” to something but no ways of saying “yes”. We systematically overestimate the intelligence of two kinds of people: the articulate and the negative.

But trashing an idea is the easy way out. Being a smart booster is the most difficult job on earth. And the most lucrative.

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