Sunday Night Comedy

An Iranian news agency has reported as fact an entirely fictitious survey carried on The Onion website earlier this week which claimed that most rural white Americans would vote for President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad ahead of Barack Obama.

The English-language service of Iran’s semi-official Fars news agency republished the spoof story from the satirical website word-for-word.

It even went so far as to include a made-up quote from a fictional West Virginia resident it idendified as Dale Swidersk who claimed he would rather go to a baseball game with Mr Ahmadinejad because “he takes national defence seriously and he’d never let some gay protesters tell him how to run his country like Obama does”

More here.

From Delusion Comes Grandeur

When I was in University we played this team building game where we were given a block building puzzle of some sort to solve. We were timed.

After putting everything together the best time in the room was announced, let’s say it was 2 minutes. Wow, good time, we all thought. Then the instructor told everyone that a rival school’s best team did it in 10 seconds. Huh?!

Immediately our expectations of excellence were reset. Let’s figure this out and try again. After the next round, our times were read out: 4 seconds, 6 seconds, 8 seconds, 8 seconds, etc.

Was the story about the other school true? Meh, maybe. Didn’t matter. All we needed was a different definition of success.

Now read this story from the video game world:

The race to build the next great RTS was on, and consequently Blizzard was about to be publicly embarrassed by its choice to show so early in the development lifecycle. Just a short walk away from the Blizzard booth was that of another game which appeared to be better than StarCraft in every respect: Dominion: Storm over Gift 3, from Ion Storm.

It’s 1996 and you want to buy an RTS game. Would you pay money for this?

Dominion Storm game screenshot

Dominion Storm

Or this?

StarCraft "Orcs in space" screenshot prior to the project reboot

While we didn’t have the opportunity to play Dominion Storm because it was a hands-off affair, it didn’t seem necessary. The Ion Storm staff members who demonstrated the game had a remarkable event that showed great-looking game units, including a signature unit that moved like the AT-AT walkers first seen in “The Empire Strikes Back” during the Battle of Hoth. With other impressive units of all sizes and forms, electric fences that could be chained together to create impenetrable barriers, and isometric-perspective artwork that showed the game units from a more compelling angle than did our nearly top-down perspective, Ion Storm’s game was kicking our ass in every regard.

It was a glum crew that made the drive back to Orange County to lick our wounds and plan for the future. The fundamental problem was that StarCraft wasn’t envisioned as a triple-A game; it was intended to fill a hole in Blizzard’s development schedule so that the company would ship a game in 1996 and thereby continue to generate revenues.

…At some point I talked with Mark and Patrick about how Dominion Storm knocked us on our heels, and they let us in on Ion Storm’s dirty little secret: the entire demo was a pre-rendered movie, and the people who showed the “demo” were just pretending to play the game! It would be an understatement to say that we were gobsmacked; we had been duped into a rebooting StarCraft, which ultimately led it to be considered “the defining game of its genre. It is the standard by which all real-time strategy games are judged” (GameSpot).

How to Build a Windmill

Admit it, if you’ve ever been surprised by a big electricity bill you’ve fantasized about generating your own power at home. Be it solar or wind or whatever. Electricity’s expensive! The sun shines and the wind blows every day. Why not?

Well, because it’s really hard:

At this point we took a 6 month detour in the wonderful world of sheetmetal fabrication. This was a lot harder than it seemed at first. Finally we settled on using a plasma cutter to cut the stator elements from standard sized sheets of metal (a special kind, which is low on carbon and has very good electromagnetic properties). Die cutting was impossible due to the cost of the dies, but if this were ever produced in volume that would be the way to go).

Actually, maybe this guy is looking or something a bit more serious than I had in mind:

The design parameters of my homebrew windmill are: 2.5 KW of output at a windspeed of 10 m/s, variable pitch blades, rotor diameter 5 meters (about 16’). The total weight of the machine is about 85 kilograms (or about 170 pounds). It has survived numerous storms and worked very well supplying our house with reliable power, far more reliable than the solar panels we had used exclusively up to the point the windmill was finished. The plan was to open-source the design and to make available a list of parts. I really should get around to that one of these days, the fact that I finally had the time to do this write up means that there is hope 😉 If you bought a machine with those specs commercially it would have cost about $10,000, but that would not be a variable pitch one. This machine cost a (fairly) large multiple of that, not counting our time, tooling and so on, but it could be reproduced well under that $10,000 mark if you already had all the tools and the knowledge and you didn’t have to go through a prototyping stage. Prototyping is very expensive and time consuming.

Designing a machine that size was a lot harder than I ever thought it would be. What was intended to be a one summer project turned into a two year tour of technology including magnetic theory, power generation, mathematics, mechanical engineering, woodworking, metalworking, meteorology, CAD/CAM, computer programming, electronics and aerodynamic theory. If you feel like acquiring some real world skills, go build a windmill! I never ever realized how much knowledge goes into making one of these until I tried it for myself.

The most demanding bit in my spec was that the windmill should be super reliable and should not require maintenance other than a lube job once every year or so. The place where it was put up has some of the harshest climate conditions on the planet, winters with days of -40 celsius and summers of +35 and sometimes even higher. Taking the windmill down during the winter was absolutely not an option (too much snow and no grip for the tractor used to raise and lower it) so reliability was extremely important, being without power meant that our house would be inhabitable almost instantly (no backup power grid, we did have a stand-by diesel generator which was used quite a bit before the windmill was installed).

Teach Children Grit and Set Their Ideas Free

Here is Econtalk:

Paul Tough, author of How Children Succeed, talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about why children succeed and fail in school and beyond school. He argues that conscientiousness–a mixture of self-control and determination–can be a more important measure of academic and professional success than cognitive ability. He also discusses innovative techniques that schools, individuals, and non-profits are using to inspire young people in distressed neighborhoods. The conversation closes with the implications for public policy in fighting poverty.

And here is a new thinker in my intellectual universe: Bret Victor. I’m somewhat amazed by this guy. He’s one of those people that can make profound things not sound pompous or douchey. Here is a talk by him and here is an interesting piece on learning programming.

His core principle: “creators need an immediate connection to what they’re creating”. Watch the video for some illustrations on what this means to him and ways he’s using this idea to guide his professional life.

A deeper meta-principle, which Bret also touches on, is that you (yes, you) should have a core philosophy/principle that guides your actions. It’s a refreshing way of looking at life.

But, to circle back on the podcast on grit, a guiding principle is great but you still will never achieve anything without a driving force. Inspiration and perspiration.

And Now For Something Weird

I’ve been following this blog for years called “Kim Jong-Il Looking At Things“.

I find it funny, ok. It might make more sense if you got to the site and see them all in succession.

Anyway, today’s picture (“Looking at Drill Bits“) features a young Kim Jong-Un! Remember these guys are all barely pushing 5’2”.

If you’re thinking, “Wait, isn’t this guy dead?”, you’re right. Here’s what the blog has to say about it:

in memoriam

at last the dear leader has quit this mortal coil. i have decided, nonetheless, to keep the blog running for as long as my photo archive will last. i don’t know when that will be, but i figure that if you’re reading this, you never minded the lack of good taste in this form of humor, which i’m very proud of, and the fact that he’s dead will make little difference.

i have also decided to make no change on the captions. they will remain in the present participle, as always. much like his father still is, and forever will be, the ‘eternal president’ of north korea, so will kim jong-il forever look at things on this site. well, not forever, it’s not like i have infinite photos of the guy, but you know what i mean…

you may tune-in as regularly as before, or if you prefer, join the myriad of successors that have appeared. or do both, if you don’t suffer from some form of attention deficit disorder, which i hope you don’t.

Will Google Write Catastrophe Insurance?

Catastrophe insurance is the sexy part of my industry: lots of data and “analytics” and in tune with the information age. It’s also alternated between the most and least profitable line of business in the business.

Here’s what you need to write the stuff:

  1. A really good map of where buildings are.
  2. Some knowledge of what those buildings are made of and, just as importantly, what they’re worth.
  3. An idea of the susceptibility of each region to natural catastrophes.

In my experience, people in the insurance business put a bit too much emphasis on #3, which a cursory understanding of is easy to get but a deep understanding of is currently beyond any intelligence yet discovered. The reality is that all of the science in the underwriting is in #s 1 and 2: where are the buildings and what are they worth?

What if Google just suddenly realizes it can probably do this better than anyone else?

“We already have what we call ‘view codes’ for 6 million businesses and 20 million addresses, where we know exactly what we’re looking at,” McClendon continued. “We’re able to use logo matching and find out where are the Kentucky Fried Chicken signs … We’re able to identify and make a semantic understanding of all the pixels we’ve acquired. That’s fundamental to what we do.”

More here.

I like imagining an even more tantalizing project: open source cat underwriting. Open Street Maps does most of what Google does except for free.

Will some actuary use this public data to check an industry-changer into Github one day? Might Index Funds (capitalizing this automated underwriting platform) and governments (subsidizing coastal homeowners) one day split all catastrophe insurance between them?

Who *Gives* High Grades

Nice people.

When I give A’s, students are happier and complain less, I get to feel like a nice person, and I give my own students (whom I generally have somewhat warm feelings toward) a benefit in their future lives….

I remember looking at grading records for undergraduate classes back when I taught at Berkeley in the early 1990s. There was lots of variation in average grades by instructor, even for different sections of the same class. I didn’t do a formal study, but I remember when flipping through the sheets that average grade seemed to be correlated with niceness. The profs who were generally pleasant people tended to give lots of A’s, while the jerks were giving lower grades.

More here with an interesting discussion about grade inflation. Via MR.

Life Coach Spurs QE3?

One of the most remarkable teaching moments in organizational behaviour is perhaps coming to a close. For years now Bernanke has been in the odd position of implicitly denouncing his life’s work.

Bernanke spent his academic years studying the great depression. His conclusion? That occasionally recessions are bizarre demand-side beasts that monetary policy can mitigate. There may well only be a few of these episodes in history: the depression, Japan in the 90s and… today.

It’s some kind of cosmic miracle that a man with his background is in charge of the fed. He’s the Chosen One, in the right place with the right skills at the right time. If only someone with his understanding were in charge of the fed in the 30s! Or running the BOJ!

Well maybe not. What we’ve seen instead is a man forced by organizational politics to abandon what he (probably) sees as the truth. Publicly Bernanke’s job is to be the voice of consensus, no matter what his private beliefs are. He has the odd distinction of being someone whose private beliefs are extremely well known. How… inconvenient.

Enter a mystery man:

Mr. Robinson, the managing partner of Vantage Leadership Consulting, a Chicago strategic talent-management firm, has been a frequent visitor to the Fed chairman’s office this summer.

Though Mr. Bernanke’s schedule is generally crammed full of gatherings with staff, other policy makers and prominent figures in academe and finance, the Fed chief met four times with Mr. Robinson between May 9 and July 20, according to Mr. Bernanke’s monthly calendars of appointments, obtained through public-records requests. He also met twice with the Fed chairman in 2011.

A 58-year-old licensed psychologist, Mr. Robinson specializes in helping companies foster leadership, both in working with firms to select leaders and through executive coaching, according to the Vantage website….

While his work varies with each organization, Mr. Robinson said three decades in the business have underscored a few basic principles.

“We spend a lot of time trying to help people understand organizations don’t function like individuals,” he said. Workplace politics and an employee’s reputation, for example, can play a part in company dynamics.

And Mr. Robinson emphasized the importance of getting the right people in charge.

“Leaders cast long shadows,” he said. “You cannot overestimate the impact of a leader.”

And perhaps such leadership has been taught?

The Unfailingly Interesting Teller

First a letter from Teller I read some time ago about how to be successful:

When we started we HAD no style, no understanding of ourselves or what we were doing.  We had feelings, vague ones, a sense of what we liked, maybe, but no unified point of view, not even a real way to express our partnership.  We fought constantly and expected to break up every other week.  But we did have a few things, things I think you might profit from knowing:

We loved what we did.  More than anything.  More than sex.  Absolutely.

We always felt as if every show was the most important thing in the world, but knew if we bombed, we’d live.

We did not start as friends, but as people who respected and admired each other.  Crucial, absolutely crucial for a partnership.  As soon as we could afford it, we ceased sharing lodgings.  Equally crucial.

We made a solemn vow not to take any job outside of show business.  We
borrowed money from parents and friends, rather than take that lethal job waiting tables.  This forced us to take any job offered to us.  Anything.  We once did a show in the middle of the Benjamin Franklin Parkway in Philadelphia as part of a fashion show on a hot July night while all around our stage, a race-riot was fully underway.  That’s how serious we were about our vow.

Get on stage.  A lot.  Try stuff.  Make your best stab and keep stabbing.  If it’s there in your heart, it will eventually find its way out.  Or you will give up and have a prudent, contented life doing something else.

Next is a piece on Teller and patent infringement. It’s hard to excerpt (the whole thing is excellent). But this is necessary:

Because Teller performs almost entirely without speaking, his voice, strong and certain, comes as a surprise. He speaks in prose, in long, languid paragraphs peppered with literary and historical references. (He once taught high school Latin; dissatisfied with the prescribed textbook, he wrote his own.)

And here is a neat part:

There is a lecture about belief that Teller has given exactly four times. He has never allowed the lecture to be recorded in any way. Unless you were in the audience, it has never happened. It is called the Red Ball, after a trick he added relatively recently to Penn & Teller’s Las Vegas show. Before Teller performs the trick, Penn announces to the hushed theater: “The next trick is done with a piece of thread.” Teller then takes the stage, on which there is a simple bench, with a red ball and a wooden hoop in his hands. He bounces the ball. He gives it to a member of the audience to bounce. And then he drops the ball before he somehow makes it roll around the stage and back and forth along the bench, as though on command. Sometimes the ball is stuck to one of his fingers or to the small of his back; sometimes it is several feet out of his reach. He even has it jump through the hoop. All of which makes it impossible for him to be performing the Red Ball with a piece of thread. Penn must be lying. There must be something more to the trick.

In his lectures, Teller explained that the trick did not originate with him. It is based on techniques developed by a largely forgotten man named David P. Abbott, a loan shark who lived in Omaha and did magic in front of invitation-only audiences in his specially built parlor. Houdini, Kellar, Ching Ling Foo, Thurston — all the great magicians of the era made the pilgrimage to Omaha and left baffled. One of Abbott’s tricks involved a golden ball that floated in the air around him. But rather than use a thread suspended from the ceiling, Abbott revealed posthumously in his Book of Mysteries, he ran the thread horizontally from his ear to the wall. By manipulating that thread with his careful hands, he could make that golden ball seem as though it were defying reality. Best of all, he could pass a hoop over it — what magicians call a prover — and eliminate a piece of thread from his audience’s range of possibility, because a horizontal thread had never entered their imagination. They were looking only for the vertical.

And this:

Penn began his patter. He told the audience that they were about to be given a choice. Teller was going to make good his escape — there was no doubt about that, Penn said. Penn was going to start playing a song on his bass, and Teller was going to finish it on his vibraphone, done deal. The choice for the audience was whether it wanted to be mystified or informed. Keep your eyes open if you want to know the secret, Penn said. Keep your eyes closed if you want to be amazed.

Penn began to finger the strings, and on most nights, most of the people in the crowd kept their eyes open. They chose heads. (If you chose hearts, skip ahead to the next paragraph.)

The choice is yours.