Steamroller Strikes

Scott Sumner teaches us to “never reason from a price change” and start a step earlier.

Felix passes with his analysis of the sky-rocketing exchange rate.

[W]hat we’re seeing here is a function of ultra-leveraged hedge funds unwinding their carry trades.

In other words, getting hit by the steamroller.

Borrow Yen to invest in US bonds and cream the difference. If the Yen suddenly gets super expensive? Effing Effed.

Everyone’s freaking out, though, because spiking currency values also implies (imposes?) excessively tight money, an economy killer. Menzie Chinn reports a successful G7 intervention:

This means that, implicitly, these carry traders are getting bailed out,  non?

Post PC World?!

The post-PC world is not heralded by the iPad, regardless of what Steve Jobs says. You need a PC to use the thing!

When I hear ‘Post-PC World’, I think people are really talking about a few trends:

  1. Computing power is very rarely a limiting factor for function these days
  2. Hardware is getting smaller and cheaper
  3. Software is a more important frontier

I think that this insurance technology blog, gets the trend right, but screws up the attribution. For instance, this sentence doesn’t make sense:

There will be no patience for slow software, no perseverance for software that isn’t easy to use and an expectation that they can interact with the insurer in a way that works for them.

Rubbish. People have always hated crappy software. What’s changed is that there is much more supply of excellent software.

Like most economics, this is not about demand. It’s about supply.

To me, the main effect that computing trends are going to have on the insurance industry is to reduce costs and so reduce premiums. But the slow grind of process improvements are only newsworthy over large timescales.

People want game changers!

I am reminded of SRW’s response to Cowen’s TGS:

I think that Cowen is lamenting a scarcity of breathtaking [technological] resets… Electricity helped make bread cheaper. But I don’t think cheap bread impresses Cowen as much as the fact that, post-electricity, humans colonized the night and Presidents colonized living rooms.

Indeed.

In the Land of Two-Eyed Men, What Does Michael Porter Think?

The Economist has a review of Michael Porter’s latest contribution. I skimmed it long enough to satisfyingly affirm my revulsion to ‘business’ as an intellectual discipline.*

A couple of years ago, I was considering opening a retail store and emailed a former marketing prof for a textbook recommendation.

He came through and, for the first time in my life, I genuinely read a damn textbook.

My god, what a load of crap.

Because I was looking for insight on, you know, how to actually manage a retail business, the book was useless. I read the thing in an hour – it was about 40% explicit filler (summaries, Q&A, indexes, case studies and graphics), 50% stealth filler (fluff  ‘filling ideas out’) and 10% real content.

Not much to actually learn but lots of useless junk you can memorize and immediately forget.

This is the classic High School BS Method. First you need  some idea, as fine-spun a thread as it may be. Then grimly stuff  it with the largest, foulest payload of BS you have time to get down. Gotta fill the page!

And it’s not just marketing – marvel at the bounty the ‘science’ of finance has reaped for the world!

For me, business education (hell, maybe ALL education) works like this: find a problem and try to solve it.

Your solution will probably fail, but try again. Maximize your chance at success  by asking people who have some relevant experience for advice.

Best case: work in teams and punish freeloading.

‘Ideas’ and ‘intelligence” are red herrings. Social intelligence matters (can you play with others?). Drive matters. Experience matters, but that’s only a function of social intelligence, drive and time.

I know that execution is boring, seems easy and doesn’t get people excited, but that’s actually the whole game.

Perhaps ironically, the version of this argument for the softest part of execution, people management, draws on Google’s experience:

Mr. Bock’s group found that technical expertise — the ability, say, to write computer code in your sleep — ranked dead last among Google’s big eight. What employees valued most were even-keeled bosses who made time for one-on-one meetings, who helped people puzzle through problems by asking questions, not dictating answers, and who took an interest in employees’ lives and careers.

Social intelligence and work ethic. The end.

*Drucker is excused from all this, of course.

Now We’re Talkin’!

Finally, some real innovation!

A new online system from the Chubb Group of Insurance Companies… allows drug and medical device developers to quickly secure required insurance documentation for clinical trials around the globe.

“If a clinical trial is delayed because a certificate of insurance is not available, inaccurate or incomplete, it also shortens the timeframe during which a life sciences company enjoys patent exclusivity,” added Goudsmit

Now THAT’s something of value to the world. Like, literally measurable economic benefit.

Even if some of us are skeptical of IP.

Well done, Chubb!

We’re Not Doing Much, But We’re Nice About it

The blogosphere has been alight with discussion of ‘rising inequality’ (yes, scare quotes!) in the US and elsewhere.

What legitimizes the debate, to me, is the strong possibility that changes in income are capturing less and less of the social benefit of innovation.

I’ve linked to Tyler Cowen’s essay and kindle single before, but I don’t think I’ve gone in any depth.

Society underwent some ridiculous changes between, say, 1900 (horse  & buggy, no refrigeration, little electricity) and 1960 (cars, airplanes, antibiotics, microwaves, mechanized farming).

Since the 60s? Computers and the Internet. Apparently, median incomes mimicked the earlier transformations and subsequent quiet.

Moreover, the Internet economy is about employing a few very highly skilled folks and very cheap scaling (free things?!). But its impact on our lives is immense. Measurements of income growth miss this.

That’s Tyler’s story.

Here’s another thing calculations of income growth misses: psychological health.

Dan Carlin’s got this podcast that poses the question: “what were the parents of history like?” The answer (I’ll paraphrase): there may not be a single parent in history that wouldn’t, today, be put in jail for child abuse.

Infanticide, emotional abuse, physical abuse and sexual abuse… all common. And damaged kids some day become damaged adults who then, in turn, damage kids of their own. Nasty stuff.

Compare this to things people worry about today. Now, some of this is the ‘Kids These Days!’ phenomenon, of course, but I wonder how ancient parents would be able to condemn such acts as well as take their kids out to watch the local executions.

I watched a documentary recently (it was up for an oscar!) that followed an Iraq vet who suffered from PTSD. Man, that does not look like fun. And might not the vast majority of historical societies suffer from similar conditions?

Anyway, the incidence of such psychological trauma has surely abated, if only because there are fewer wars screwing up entire generations at a time. Why are we becoming nicer?

In a Russ Roberts podcast, George Will considers one aspect of this phenomenon (civil rights) and credits our fortune for MLK being born.

I don’t buy it.

I have little doubt that we’re probably the most psychologically healthy humans to ever have lived, but who knows why?

 

The Earthquake

Much has been said about this.

I’d say the most notable take-away from this disaster is the awesome achievement of the preparedness of the Japanese for this kind of thing. I read somewhere that earthquakes you can FEEL happen almost every day down there.

If any country can take a right hook from Planet Earth, it’s Japan.

Professionally, I do very little Japanese business, so I don’t have an awesome intuitive feel for the market reaction here. The quake was a monster, possibly as high as third all time, depending how how the measurement revisions go.

And that’s the most important point, I suppose. Quakes are notoriously hard to get a handle on quickly. The property damage can take literally years to uncover (think cracked foundations and leaky pipes).

Throw in a wonky nuclear plant and extant flooding from the tsunami and it’s a big fat question mark.

But these people don’t buy too much EQ insurance (it’s pricey and they feel pretty prepared), so I’m pessimistic about the damage to the marketplace. April 1st is a big renewal date, particularly for the Japanese covers.

It won’t take too much internal finangling for the ex-US folks to wrestle some capital away from the dead-in-the-water US casualty market.

Light Bulb!

Felix Salmon explains how Managment Consulting works:

The reason you hire McKinsey is that its consultants have seen strategic business issues like yours before, and therefore might have developed good insights into how to approach them.

Wait, this sounds familiar…

Eskimos Need Ice Cubes, Too

I think it’s worth following up on this.

Over time, a poor grasp of macro trends will doom any business strategy, of course. But in the short term, success is more closely linked to incumbent competitive advantages.

What really intrigues me is that part of the economy so resistant to automation: social interaction.

It’s probably not an unfair simplification to say that economic growth is all about uncovering ways to routinize tasks. So it’s important that a routine task is not necessarily a simple task, at least to a human mind.

As legions of kids struggling through math class have realized, humans are not logic machines, we’re social machines. Computer brains were built to process logic while human brains were built (and trained!) to process social signals.

That we can do any logic at all is pretty cool. But mostly our processing routines are veiled, messy, parallel and unbelievably complex.

But wait, you say: computers have been around for, what, 50 years? And they’re already deriving the laws of physics! Took us millennia!

Perhaps, but the complexity of the the calculations involved in social interaction will baffle the most powerful computers for a long time still; like it or not, the highest form of intelligence is social intelligence. And it cannot be routinized.

Some professionals, like salesmen, are entirely concerned with social interaction. In these cases, the social intellect is king, of course.

I work in a sales business and we think nothing of the most skilled and experienced minds in my company gathering round to debate the implications of a few sentences in a client’s email. Like, literally for an hour or more. Business context, personality, politics, mood, the fucking weather that day. All have an effect.

Now THAT’s complex.

That’s why producers get paid more than actuaries in my biz. They may not have the fancy math, but they’re still smarter.

In any context in which you need to convince other humans of your quality, social intelligence is how you do it.

And that’s every context.

Superhero Bubble

The Economist has an article about the Chinese property market. The Chinese government is worried about a property bubble, understandable when you have a colossal savings rate, relatively young population and everyone who remembers the last private property crash died 20 here ago.

It’s this last point that gets me. People avoid bubbling assets because they’re worried about the sting of big capital losses. If the collective memory of the last such pain is too faint, people take it less seriously.

And the government response? Dampen demand.

The Chinese government has unveiled a series of measures since April 2010 to mute house-price inflation. They include raising the minimum downpayment for first-time buyers to 30% of a home’s value, up from 20% before, and a stop on mortgages for people buying a third or subsequent home.

Ok, but bubbles are about perception, not about actual transactions. What if people think this dampened demand is actually delayed demand?

Well, then they’ll think that all these people forced to sit out are just waiting to get back in. The bull market will last forever!

What if bubble killing policy actually just makes it stronger?!

It Is What It Is… Until It’s Now

Krugman won the Nobel Prize for, in part, describing how industries cluster in some areas, something called Economic Geography.

Now, what’s interesting to me about this is that, as he discusses in his Nobel Lecture, he was able to describe this only as its effects were ending! Today, the speculation goes, the power of industry concentration to enhance returns is waning.

There’s a long history of people describing trends only as they are ending.

The Malthusian theory of the economy probably did a good job of describing how things worked right up until the thing was published, following which the Industrial Revolution changed everything.

That’s how I like to think of Cowen’s TGS. He describes a world of declining innovation growth rates, but perhaps just as they are about to really pick up?

And remember, real technological innovation takes years and years from eureka to IPO. I stand by my view of the medium term.