How Ted Blanch Left His Dent in the Universe (or at least in Minnesota)

This episode features Ted Blanch. Ted to me is one of the greatest leaders the reinsurance industry has ever seen and one of the most underrated leaders of any industry in any era. Ted ran the firm EW Blanch, taking over at about 50 employees and growing it into a billion dollar company by the mid-90s. That alone puts Ted among the most successful businessmen in the world but EW Blanch was also a pioneer in catastrophe modeling and has as its legacy a reinsurance industry in Minneapolis. How many can say they reshaped the economic geography of the United States? How he did it, his philosophy of management and Ted’s downright humility shine through in our conversation.

Two things I learned in this conversation that I’ll carry with me for a long time are how catastrophe modeling as an investment for the firm (and they were a pioneer) followed the classic startup path: it was a stupid idea.. until it wasn’t. I’ll let Ted tell the story:

If we had laid a bigger egg, it would have to have been dropped by an albatross.

And then a wonderful thing happened. And the wonderful thing that happened was Hurricane Andrew. Where all of the people who had their own systems for measuring their cat exposures found out just how wrong they were. Did they have a desire to be right? I don’t know. But I’ll tell you one thing, the guy sitting in the corner office didn’t want to have to go to the board or the shareholders and say we’re not doing anything about this. So everybody started using modeling.

On the organizational front, two things stood out. First that he hired young and trained folks obsessively. Here Ted explains the development program:

TB: We had professional educators who were doing it. We never had them teach, we only had them organize it and help develop the curriculum. The teachers were always the people who worked at the firm.
DW: What did it look like for a new student coming into the program…
TB: Basically it was divided into two parts: one was classroom work and the other was we gave them jobs to do so they were always working…
The classroom work was basically half days to whole days and it went on for, I don’t know, my recollection is we were doing about 9 weeks of classroom work which was divided into sections in a syllabus to cover a bunch of different things. And then we would test them and they liked being tested…

Second, he shared in the equity of EW Blanch with his producers. Ted one last time:

TB: My belief was that I would be better off having a smaller share of a much larger pie than I would having a big percentage but not being able to attract and work with people who really felt good about what they were doing.

DW: did you always know that would work?

TB: No, no I didn’t know it would work it just seemed like the right thing to do.”

There’s so much more in our conversation, including what Ted thinks of Minneapolis, a discussion on whether or not he fired his father and what he’s learning about now after almost 60 years in the business.

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Sales, CEOship and Unknown Unknowns with Bart Hedges

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Next on the Not Unreasonable Podcast is Bart Hedges. I’ve been doing business with Bart for years and I’ve always liked his style. Bart is an actuary, former teenaged entrepreneur and the son of a car salesman. He recently stepped down as the CEO of Greenlight Re, an affiliate of David Einhorn’s Greenlight capital and an innovator in the reinsurance business. On top of it all, Bart’s ‘good guy quotient’ is off the charts.

One book we discussed on the show is The Mental ABC’s of pitching, which I actually came across in a David Brooks column. Here is the passage that got me to buy the book and the key lesson from it that I carry with me to this day:

A pitcher is defined, he writes, “by the way the ball leaves his hand.” Everything else is extraneous.

In Dorfman’s description of pitching, batters barely exist. They are vague, generic abstractions that hover out there in the land beyond the pitcher’s control. A pitcher shouldn’t judge himself by how the batters hit his pitches, but instead by whether he threw the pitch he wanted to throw.

Dorfman once approached Greg Maddux after a game and asked him how it went. Maddux said simply: “Fifty out of 73.” He’d thrown 73 pitches and executed 50. Nothing else was relevant.

Focus is one of the most powerful forces in the universe. Cultivate it!

Do listen to my interview with Bart. And if you want to receive an email when I publish a podcast, please sign up here!

The Not Unreasonable Podcast Episode 3- Don Mango

The first Not-pilot episode of the Not Unreasonable Podcast is up! thinking-chimp_card

Don Mango is one of the most important thinkers in insurance. He has published numerous papers and helped, in my mind, the rest of us figure out what on earth to do with all the computational advances of the last 20 years.

In this episode we talk about that as well as how publishing research changed his life; what is relative strength is among published authors; the peculiarity of the intellectual community of actuaries; how capital should be modeled (you can all eat the pie!); the future of technology in insurance and more!

I’m happy to say Don’s also an excellent guy and very gracious interviewee.

In the conversation we discuss a few papers I enjoyed:
Mango’s first publication

Click to access 97spf031.pdf

Capital as a shared asset (eat the whole pie!):

Click to access 577.pdf

On his paper on random number generation: “This is really valuable and I couldn’t imagine an actuary in a more traditional role would have had access to” http://www.casact.org/pubs/forum/99spforum/99spf337.pdf

risk load and default rate of surplus, which got him attention from the more traditional capital markets:
http://www.casact.org/research/dare/index.cfm?fa=view&abstrID=3684

His pragmatic papers:
how the normal copula is flawed.

Click to access 02wf057.pdf

How to present DFA results to the board of directors (including stories of his errors!)”

Click to access 00sf055.pdf

The Kreps reserve range presentation (I think… two choices here):
http://slideplayer.com/slide/9444105/
http://slideplayer.com/slide/9706775/

Writing on actuaries as engineers (and the future!):
http://www.casact.org/research/dare/index.cfm?fa=view&abstrID=6676

The Internet-of-Things and Actuarial Engineering