Quotes of The Day

“Spain is not Greece.” Elena Salgado, Spanish Finance minister, February, 2010.

“Portugal is not Greece.” The Economist, April 2010.

“Greece is not Ireland.” George Papaconstantinou, Greek Finance minister, November, 2010.

“Spain is neither Ireland nor Portugal.” Elena Salgado, Spanish Finance minister, November 2010.

“Ireland is not in ‘Greek Territory.’”Irish Finance Minister Brian Lenihan. November 2010.

“Neither Spain nor Portugal is Ireland.” Angel Gurria, Secretary-general OECD, November, 2010.

“Italy is not Spain” – Ed Parker, Fitch MD, 12 June 2012

“Spain is not Uganda” Spanish PM Rajoy. June, 2012

“Uganda does not want to be Spain” (Ugandan foreign minister) June 13th 2012

source here. hat tip @justinwolfers

Got Crap To Do?

Another common hack I use is to hire people on oDesk and other freelancing sites for various tasks. There is no programatic way to shift my Amazon Wishlist to my local library. I could spend hours figuring it out, do it manually or just pay someone $1 in the Philippines to do it for me.

That’s from Steve Coast’s setup. The Setup is one of my favorite blogs.

Helluva interesting idea. Never occurred to me to get cheapo programmers to automate personal gruntwork (here’s his story about it). I have a fairly large backlog of ideas here. I shall investigate.

What You Wish For

My study reveals that, in one way or another, each of the creators became embedded in some kind of a bargain, deal, or Faustian arrangement, executed as a means of ensuring the preservation of his or her unusual gifts. In general, the creators were so caught up in the pursuit of their work mission that they sacrificed all, especially the possibility of a rounded personal existence. The nature of this arrangement differs: In some cases (Freud, Eliot, Gandhi), it involves the decision to undertake an ascetic existence; in some cases, it involves a self-imposed isolation from other individuals (Einstein, Graham); in Picasso’s case, as a consequence of a bargain that was rejected, it involves an outrageous exploitation of other individuals; and in the case of Stravinsky, it involves a constant combative relationship with others, even at the cost of fairness. What pervades these unusual arrangements is the conviction that unless this bargain has been compulsively adhered to, the talent may be compromised or even irretrievably lost. And, indeed, at times when the bargain is relaxed, there may well be negative consequences for the individual’s creative output.

that’s from Barker.

Covered In Glory

About 45 minutes into the discussion, he shared something with me:

“This is my 5th start-up. I hope it works but…. My wife says, “this is it.” We’re done after this one. I’ll have to go work for some big tech company if this doesn’t work out. We’ve chased this dream for a long time. It’s been real tough to be so close.”

They didn’t make it. The company’s gone. I haven’t kept up with him but I assume his wife ensured he followed her advice.

More here with a bit of a ‘the best are mostly lucky and the smart ones know it’ slant.

If Only You Could Bottle a Placebo

But now we are learning that while the placebo itself is inert, the act of giving a placebo is not: it can produce actual physiological effects through suggestion and expectation.

That’s from SBM. It’s easy for scientifically-minded people to scoff at placebos, which are pure evil to any card-carrying physics-evnying PhD. How do you control and test the effect of the communication/empathy skills of a practitioner? How about status or charisma? Can’t, so no point in talking about it.

That needlessly cedes ground to charlatans and worse, though. The human body is a pretty awesome drugstore. It’s one where the shelves are shrouded and nobody knows how to pay, but we should pay attention to it:

the take-home message for clinicians, for physicians, for all health professionals is that their words, behaviors, attitudes are very important, and move a lot of molecules in the patient’s brain. So, what they say, what they do in routine clinical practice is very, very important, because the brain of the patient changes sometimes… there is a reduction in anxiety; but we know that there is a real change…in the patient’s brain which is due to… the ‘ritual of the therapeutic act.’

Why not train doctors to be better at delivery? The SBM post frames this as a conversation about ethics, but I don’t think you need to go there. As pointed out in this post, there are a lot of different kinds of placebo effects and not all of them require lying to patients.

SBM agrees on that point, at least:

I think attempts to elicit a placebo effect should be only used in conjunction with an effective treatment. Words should be used carefully, and the focus should be on general measures that bolster the doctor/patient relationship and enhance the patient’s trust, like spending more time with the patient and showing a greater interest and sympathy.

Anyway, let’s talk about the liars.

Is it ok to lie to someone if it’s genuinely in their interest? Amazing as it is to say, this is an ethical problem that needs to be resolved to advance science (here is another one!).

I’d argue that it is a good idea, but proving that it’s in their interest is a really messy empirical question.

Here is what a placebo balanced trial looks like:

Dr. Benedetti is using “placebo balanced design” to tease out the influence of verbal suggestions — expectations — on the action of drugs. Subjects are divided into four groups. The first group of subjects receives the active treatment and is told it is the active treatment (the truth).  The second group receives the active treatment and is told it is placebo (a lie). The third group receives placebo and is told it is the active treatment (a lie). The fourth group receives placebo and is told it is placebo (the truth).

Not good enough, in my mind. You’ll need ANOTHER level of testing where you tell one group that you’ll be lying to some people. In the real world, patients would know placebos are fair game and so controlling that feedback loop is important, too.

And even then, some doctors will be better faith healers than others and so just get better outcomes. Bottle that!

Picasso On Conversations

“When art critics get together they talk about Form and Structure and Meaning. When artists get together they talk about where you can buy cheap turpentine.” – Picasso

That outstanding quote is via Chris Dixon.

I talk a lot of silliness on this blog but that’s because in the world of execution there are only a small few themes that matter:

  • work hard
  • associate with hard workers
  • work hard
  • don’t get discouraged
  • work hard

A business blog devoted to the equivalent of tips on cheap turpentine would simply repeat those themes in post after post. A lot of founder/bloggers more or less do this and I really enjoy being battered by those messages. I feel like it helps me improve at what I am most proud of: executing in business.

But it would be boring to write. People have an appetite for talking meta nonsense and imagining narrative where there may be none. I indulge it shamelessly.

Haters Will Hate. Good.

You care deeply about your work. And adversity strikes hard. Imagine the emotions: shame, embarrassment, loneliness.

What do you do?

Remember the most important motivational trick of professional athletes:

1. Everyone thinks you don’t have a chance.
2. Yet you are capable of beating the best.

To overcome insurmountable paper disadvantages requires psychological rocket fuel.

Remember the space race? The Soviets were smarter, better organized; they racked up all of the previous ‘firsts’ in spaceflight. Yet only one flag stands on the moon.

And take the fact that visits have stopped not as a lesson in the silliness of the pursuit. Take it instead as an homage to the essential characteristic of human progress: the everlasting desire to (figuratively, these days) annihilate the opposition.

Take adversity as an opportunity to focus your mind on a critical weakness and eliminate it. Press hard on the nerves of identity politics: it’s ‘us versus them’ and even though they all doubt us we know we’re the best.

Ten Exers

In respect of programmers:

But what exactly do ten-xers do to be so productive? It is not as though they write more lines of software per day. What little evidence there is suggests that, over any given period, all experienced programmers—good, bad or indifferent—tend to produce much the same amount of code.

The big difference is that the best coders keep more of what they have produced, while the worst constantly have to rework whole sections. The high-achievers also make each line of code achieve more. And they know how to avoid writing unnecessary code—by editing routines they have written in the past to accomplish similar things.

More here. Another way of putting this is something a cousin of mine once said: “I don’t really care about working hard. I want to work smart.”

Work” in this case has very little to do with programming and very much to do with intangible related skills: prioritization, communication, adapting work already done. Universally useful skills, too.

Adventures in Drug Traffic

Michael Braun, the former chief of operations for the D.E.A., told me a story about the construction of a high-tech fence along a stretch of border in Arizona. “They erect this fence,” he said, “only to go out there a few days later and discover that these guys have a catapult, and they’re flinging hundred-pound bales of marijuana over to the other side.” He paused and looked at me for a second. “A catapult,” he repeated. “We’ve got the best fence money can buy, and they counter us with a 2,500-year-old technology.”

Much, much more here. First long form NYT article I’ve enjoyed in a while.

addendum: I’m still only halfway through (it’s long), but I could quote every second paragraph. A must-read.