Disclosure Is Costly

I was walking into the elevator at work today and noticed a newsbite referring to this article.

Natural Gas companies are “bowing to pressure” from “environmentalist groups” and disclosing the chemicals used in the hydrofracking process.

“Good”, public-minded folks might perhaps think, “‘those bastards were hiding the recipe because they KNEW they were destroying the environment (*spits*). Evil [bleep]ing corporations”

Don’t worry, the article is designed to foster this kind of response (or perhaps an equally ferocious primal scream of “I HATE ENVIRONMENTALISTS”).

Try to think of a narrative that doesn’t pit one group against another. Why would a natural gas company be so cagey with this information?

Here’s a clue:

In a significant break from past practice, Range says it will begin submitting a detailed list of all chemicals and additives, and the volumes, used to fracture each of its gas wells to the state.

Two bits in that are interesting: “significant break from past practice” and “detailed list [etc…]. I’ll translate: “we’ve never done this before” and “it’s a really effing complicated list, possibly involving several departments in the company that probably don’t talk to each other much.”

I’d bet it’s something of a project to accumulate all this information, check it twice, publish it and deal with all the press and scrutiny that results. That’s going to cost lots of money and time for this organization.

If this was a person, not a company, the process is simple. The person just says “oh, I use these chemicals”.

Companies are giant networks of people. Different rules.

Comfort Zone

The idea of a comfort zone is a powerful one. Carl Froch offers some fascinating commentary in the video in this link:

I could do 15 or 20 rounds in the gym at my own pace against guys lighter than me or not skillful enough to match me technically. But I was sparring with a guy who was a Cruiserweight/Light Heavyweight and after 5 or 6 rounds I was feeling the pace, thinking “what’s going on?”

We’re also told that Wladimir Klitschko’s trainer has been concerned with the pace of training and WK pulled rank, basically saying “it’s my gym, I’m the star, I dictate the pace.”

Doesn’t bode well, does it!

Farm Subsidies and Other Horrors

Here is the Washington Post with a depressing article, summed up thusly:

The Republican-led House voted to slash domestic and international food aid Thursday while rejecting cuts to farm subsidies.

Shove this one firmly into the “fuel for leftist fire” file. Stop helping low status people! Keep helping (GASP!) Agribusiness!

Maybe that’s the right analytical conclusion. I doubt it.

The great power of ideology is that it lets you infer motivation from outcomes. The great weakness of ideology is that it’s wrong.

It’s wrong because its input isn’t real information (is it even possible to understand who all the losers and winners are in this bill, much less why?) And it’s wrong because nobody actually makes decisions based on ideology.

That’s a reason why voters find politics so frustrating. Why won’t candidates genuinely bind themselves to actions during the election process when ideological posturing is at its peak?

Well, because decisions driven by ideology are usually nonsense. Real decisions are made with far more information than the public could possibly process during a campaign.

So here we have a narrative developing that is cloaked in a powerful ideology. And it’s no accident, either. The press knows that’s the only way they could hope to interest readers in all this byzantine garbage. And again, maybe it’s what is really happening. I don’t know.

What I do know is that I refuse to get worked up about something I don’t understand and I refuse to spend the time trying to understand what is really going on.

A Weekend Odyssey

So I’m gearing up for a trip to Buffalo to meet the old man for father’s day. How am I getting there?

I’m spending 9 hours on a bus. Each way.

My wife and coworkers think I’ve lost my mind. But I have a few projects on the go that could, in ideal circumstances, easily wipe out 18 hours of my life. Actually, the chance to bash away at them for this kind of stretch has me excited.

There’s allegedly wifi on this bus (accused on the interwebs of being inconsistent and slow) and, more importantly, plugs, so I’m bringing my laptop to code.

I’m expecting the web not to work, so I’m using this post to warm up the wordpress email interface (on my bb right now) so as to keep the post-a-day streak alive.

I have fond memories of long train journeys in my college days, so hopefully the assuredly less comfortable bus is at least tolerable.

No, my dad isn’t getting any other gifts.

Silicon… Alley?

My wife’s looking for a job and got the tip off of a job fair going down in midtown today. She didn’t want to go alone, so I took the afternoon off and tagged along.

Little did I know that I’d run into a gigantic tech startup community. There were probably 50-75 companies all boothed-up with some pretty snappy professionally branded t-shirts, displays, food, etc. Impressive.

It was nirvana for software developers of all stripes. Now THAT is a skill in demand. For people in marketing, like my wife, it was less thrilling, but still solid and well worth the trip.

They call the tech startup community here Silicon Alley and if it is a representative example of what all tech startups are, then it is clear that the most exciting part of our economy is in finding ways of producing and processing information using networking technology.

Witness the beginning of the beginning.

 

In Praise of Stasis

I think that the worst thing for many television shows is plot progression.

Take The Office (US Version). Season 1 was more or less a replica of the UK version. In Season two it really came into its own. I think Season two of that show was one of the finest television achievements of all time.

Then it got worse. The writers couldn’t help themselves. They had to progress ‘the plot’. The characters changed, the relationships changed. The finely tuned balance was disrupted.

And it stopped being funny.

I love the second season. I miss the second season. Seinfeld, The Simpsons, Arrested Development, 30 Rock, Family Guy. These shows were funny to the extent that they DIDN’T change once they figured out what worked. If they did and realized it sucked, they found a way back.

Comedy is a formula, not a narrative. Once you get a mix of characters and relationships that work, don’t screw around with it.

An Anonymous Rant Against A Professional Writer

PC360 gives us this. It’s so sticky with jargon to be barely readable.

Let me summarize the (2,300 word) article:

Claims data can teach underwriters about where claims come from and expose new drivers of claims cost. Analyzing claims databases is a good way of testing new hypotheses but,  for organizational reasons, most companies aren’t great at this.

Yawn. Could have been written at any point in the last 300 years.

Next is a big discussion about how automated computer programs can correlate variables without the burden of actually ‘understanding’ the data.

[shields up! BS ALERT!]

My old man once spent some time learning about a stock picking technique which, to be perfectly honest, looked like garbage to me. But sometimes it worked!

I’d argue it’s complete luck. As they say, “even a broken watch is right twice a day”.

Narrative validation a powerful test for statistical conclusions: correlation is useless without a deep understanding for the causal mechanism. Unexplained, ‘dumb’ empirical relationships (describes all too much of medical research, imo) are too unreliable for me to back with cash.

If you don’t know how it works, how on earth do you know when it breaks?

Time For Something Different

I like to cook. I enjoyed this.

It’s true that the easiest way to make your food taste better is to add fat and salt to it. I’ve done it and been impressed with the results.

But I think there are a few more complex things that I feel like I’ve learned that seem to work.

1. Cook it longer and undercook it.

A paradox! Sorta, but it’s important to present these things together. Cooking does something amazing to strong flavours; it blunts them, softens them, makes them harder to pick out but ‘complex’ to the palette. But don’t overcook. Overcooking destroys texture, which is a seriously underappreciated quality to food for us amateurs. Solve the contradiction by finding foods that can take a beating from the heat.

2. Rest food after it’s done.

I noticed that the stuff I cooked tasted better at seconds. Something happens when food sits for 5 minutes.

3. Don’t use water.

There are lots of alternatives, believe it or not. For instance, never throw away the ‘juice’ from canned food. Cook the rice in it! Canned tomatoes are best for this. Use wine, use beer. Seriously!

4. Oh, yeah, and never cook with fresh tomatoes.

They’re tasteless garbage. Michael Smith taught me (from his show) that canned whole tomatoes are cooked (once) right after being picked, while chopped tomatoes are cooked twice. ‘Fresh’ tomatoes are NOT fresh, but ripened en route. Ugh.

5. Cook with Canola Oil. Only.

I read something recently about how all oils all taste the same after they’ve been heated. This means your super-expensive olive oil tastes just like cheapo canola when coating your frying onions. Don’t throw away the nice olive oil, though, just put it on later with minimal heat.

6. Except. Butter does taste different.

And better. Cook with butter when you can.

Ancient Inventory Lists (and Quantum Computing)

Some industrious researcher has transcribed thousands of lists of households’ goods in some small German town from the 17th and 18th centuries.

I love this kind of story. Datasets are so easy to build and analyze now relative to, say, 10 or 20 years ago.

And anyone interested in projecting trends in such computing power might try an online course in Quantum Computing!